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US RESISTS: Annual GDP will fall between -3, 66% and -4, 10% of its GDPGOAL

14/01/2021 06:43 0 Comentarios Lectura: ( palabras)

"US GDP could fall less than expected by pushing the DOW JONES to 33, 242 - 34, 039 points."

Study by Jorge Vendrell that will be part of his next book entitled: "FROM THE WORLD ECONOMIC PANDEMIC TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRIOGENIZATION." Quote required by copyright."

US GDP could fall less than expected by pushing the DOW JONES to 33, 242 - 34, 039 points.

"According to my forecasts, US GDP could rise in the fourth quarter between 1, 36% and 3.44%; with annual GDP falling between -3, 66% and -4.10% of the Target Gdp Target, Gdpgoal, which would be excellent news that could propel DOW JONES towards new historical highs between 33, 242 and 33, 039 points." J. Vendrell 13.01.2021 US EXPECTED GDP -2020

The following table shows the summary of US expected GDP by 2020. The first line shows calculations according to the Gdpgoal Fusion System method, MFS, matching the 2nd row with the Gdpgoal Media System, MMS calculation method.

1. According to the MFS (line 1) the annual GDP of 2020 will fall back to -3, 25% up to 18, 524, 498 M€, given that the US annual Metapib in 2020 is -4.10%, i.e., 18, 362, 122M, GDP in 2020 from the US will achieve positive Relative Efficiency (ERP) of EUR 161, 939 M. It can also be seen how quarterly inter-quarter GDP would in this case reach a 3.44% increase.
2. If we now calculate annual GDP using the Metapib Media System method, we see that the annual GDP of 2020 will fall from -3.66% to 18, 430, 781 M€, given that the US annual Metapib in 2020 is -4.10%, i.e., 18, 362, 122M, GDP in 2020 will reach a positive relative efficiency (ERP) of 84, 533 million euros; and quarterly inter-quarter GDP would in this case reach a 1.36% increase. Preliminary conclusions:

The difference between the fall in THE GDP of the MFS of 3.25% and that of the MMS of 3.66%, of only 11.20%, represents a drop in the Relative Efficiency of Gdp, REG, of the US of 52, 23%, 77, 356, from 161, 939M to 84, 583M

"Whether the final fall in GDP is -3, 25% or -3.66%, as long as it is less than 4.10% of the Gdpgoal will be considered extraordinary in the first case, and good on the second, falling on this scale if it were to be between -4, 10% of the Gdpgoal and 0.5 points below it to -4, 60%, in which case we would say that Relative Efficiency of GDP would be considered in line with what was expected, and above this level as worse than expected"

"The GPDGOAL is the best yardstick of the economic situation of a country, even more effective than the inter-quarterly variation

WHAT WILL BE AMERICA'S FINAL GDP?

To answer this question, we will analyze the Relative Efficiency of the GFS and GMS tables. As we see, both tables consist of the same columns, with the 3rd being responsible for measuring variations between year-on-year GDP for each quarter, 6th the variation between quarterly gdp, 7th quarterly Gdpgoal variations, whose annual average falls in the US in 2020 to -4, 10%, and column 8a and more importantly, Relative Efficiency.

Gdpgoal Pictures

Relative Efficiency.- By comparing quarterly falls in GDP with their respective Metapib declines, we can calculate US Relative GDP Efficiency. (Column 8, difference between 3 and 7)

In the 1st quarter there is a large variation in favor of GDP, possibly due to the inertia of the economy.

In the 2nd quarter this difference is considerably reduced, with Gdp and Gdpgoal being very similar.

In the 3rd quarter, the difference between Gdp increases by recording a quarterly GDP drop of -6.57%, which contrasts with Gdpgoal's -3.74% decline that nearly doubles it, which does not augur the best of results for the fourth quarter. Calculation of the Gdpgoal -Fusion System and Metapib Media System

The difference between the two is simple:

1. Fusion System replaces the GDP of the 4th quarter, until now unknown, with -4.69% of its Metapib (red oval) which results in a fall in annual GDP of -3.25%
2. Media System calculates the fall in GDP in the first quarter considering the average variation of the 2nd and 3rd, regardless of that of the 1st, which as we see is not representative since it rose by 5.18% which contrasts with the fall of -0.67% of the Metapib of the 1st quarter. FINAL CONCLUSION

"Considering that the fall in GDP in the 3rd quarter almost doubles to the Relative Efficiency of that quarter, which cannot be a good result, and that the expected fall inGdp for the 4th quarter calculated through the MFS is -3, 29%, lower than that of the MMS which is -3.66% and is also more about Relative Gdp Efficiency which is -4.10%. Inmy opinion, AMERICA's annual GDP will range from a fall of 3.68% to 4.10% of its Gdpgoal, this being a magnificent result."

" Gdpgoal is undoubtedly the best measuring stick to a country's economic situation, even more effective than the inter-quarterly variation that can distort reality at the onset of economic paralysis because of past economic inertia."

" Gdpgoal is the best measuring stick to a country's economic situation, even more effective than the inter-quarterly variation ."

Jorge Vendrell - World Economy Devolepment Center

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